For anyone involved in communications consulting, these past few weeks have been head-spinning. While developments have come fast and furious, the re-election of Donald Trump has become a watershed moment for U.S. based “mainstream” media. Some sobering facts:
Since October:
The Washington Post has lost over 250,000 digital subscribers
The Los Angeles Times has lost over 18,000 digital subscribers
This is far from an exhaustive list. Blame TikTok, AI, “the phones”, Covid, or go back further to Google AdWords and Craigslist – but the media world is vastly different than it was just six months ago or even six weeks ago.
These trends have been building for some time within the teetering economic models of many “mainstream” media organizations – for a simple reason. They’ve lost their audiences and subsequently their advertisers.
And while legacy outlets still command significant reach and influence -- by any reasonable measure, they are in fact no longer the “mainstream”. They are no longer serving the mass of American audiences.
All professional communicators must adapt to this new environment, or risk being left behind.
The more things change, the more they stay the same….
With NBC effectively throwing in the towel on the linear broadcasting era – it’s amazing to see how little the essential business of broadcasting has changed in the last 100 years.
David Sarnoff – the early 20th century founder of RCA and the NBC network, and arguably the creator of mass broadcast media, would understand this instinctively. An executive with prophetical vision -- in 1915 -- Sarnoff laid out his vision for a “Radio Music Box” which would bring “music”, “baseball scores”, and “lectures” into the home – “transmitted over the air”.
Sarnoff’s “Radio Music Box” memo conceptually understood the power of mass audiences to generate massive profits – because advertising – “[the product’s name] would ultimately be brought into the home and receive national and universal attention”
Sound familiar?
If you consider “The Radio Box Memo” a starter’s pistol - the 20th Century media institutions, from Hollywood studios to program networks (TV, radio, broadcast and cable) instinctively and obsessively pursued and monetized mass audience. And while cable and the early days of the internet splintered those audiences – the outlets themselves primarily sought advertising revenues to drive profitability.
Is that the case today?
Consider NY Magazine’s recent “Media Meltdown” story), where mainstream media leadership seem to be grasping at how to find a workable economic model. Sarnoff’s advice (and later obsessive pursuit) that mass audience and mass advertising is the key to profits and influence has been cast off as “unworkable” given competition with social media and other forms of attention.
Subscribers have become the new brass ring – but the despondent quotes given to NY Magazine really give up the game:
The NY Magazine piece confirms “mainstream” outlets are now focused on serving their “subscriber base” instead of a mass audience.
More professional oriented outlets that people effectively need for work -- like Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal can rely (for now) on their ability to move markets to guarantee their subscriber base. Their vast resources provide consistent value to their subscribers because Capital Markets rest upon timely, accurate information.
And let’s be real – how many people get their Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg logins from work?
It’s the same reason that niche business trade publications like Pensions and Investments and Stat News have been able to survive better than formerly high-flying digital publications like Buzzfeed.
For the other legacy outlets? The future is in “finding the next Wordle”.
All professional communicators must confront this massive sea change.
David Sarnoff Lives!
What does it mean for our clients when the Washington Post – an excellent media outlet in many ways, loses the power to consistently attract, let alone influence audience?
Where is the public we are supposed to relate to? Has the economic model of the “Radio Box Memo” effectively collapsed?
Obviously not!
Sarnoff’s vision persists in the YouTube channels, Podcasts, Substacks and Over-The-Top music and video streamers who are grabbing audience, advertisers, AND subscribers en masse!
These broadcasts may be different in form from the early days of NBC – but substantively they are still delivering the lectures, news, music, and sports content that David Sarnoff envisioned in 1915.
And it’s not just podcasts. There has been a literal explosion in audiences for what the writer and Substacker Ted Gioia calls the “micro-culture”. Substack reported its 4 millionth paid subscription this week. And YouTube remains absolutely dominant.
Many people are aware of the aggregate numbers that demonstrate the absolutely mindboggling amount of mindshare YouTube receives (the United States alone has around 238 million YouTube viewers).
But zoom in on individual YouTube channels that focus on topics as diverse as movies, action figures, gardening, or video gaming, and you’ll find they routinely draw hundreds of thousands of viewers to both uploads and livestreams. Even podcasts have now become YouTube casts – with increasingly impressive production value.
If you’ve gone down the YouTube rabbit hole, you know exactly what I’m talking about. And if you haven’t, and you’re a professional communicator, you’re already behind.
These “micro culture” audiences are growing, engaged with creators in the comment section, and influencing the mainstream – with measurable impact in choices Americans are making in retail, entertainment and most obviously – politics.
Ok so what do we do about it?
How can thoughtful communicators navigate this environment? How can we best leverage these trends for our client’s benefit?
Back in September, I had the opportunity to discuss some of these trends to Cognito’s global team at our global conference “Cognicon” in beautiful Lisbon, Portugal. And its clear that the U.S. is a leading indicator. While our “micro-culture” is more robust than other markets, that is rapidly changing – as YouTube, podcasts and over-the-top streamers adapt to the specific tastes of global audiences.
So as this trend accelerates on a global scale– here are a key principles we’re sharing with our clients to help adapt to the new environment:
Trust the instincts of your audience.
Legacy outlets remain important, but that unkempt-looking YouTuber might be the key to influencing your most important stakeholders.
The medium is still the message – but the “micro-culture” medium is still emerging
Successful “micro-culture” content tends to be shaggier, less formal, more bottom-up and less polished YouTube is not CNBC. Podcasts are not Bloomberg Radio.
But overall, we’re seeking to leverage innovative trends wherever we can find them.
Some macro-cultural stalwarts like Disney and Warner Brothers are once again putting a primacy on advertising. In the prior quarter, Disney blew past earnings expectations, in part because it has doubled advertising on Disney+ globally.
The opportunity to advertise on premium content has never been more accessible. Unlike David Sarnoff’s early NBC, the supply of these ads is effectively infinite and can be deployed across a broad array of live, new and existing programming.
Across the board new paid and earned opportunities are opening up across both macro and micro-culture. I presented these as some of the beneficiaries back in September – but I’m positive more can be added since then (I’m looking at you Theo Von):
I’ll be writing more about these trends – and how they’re impacting our craft and our clients in the coming weeks. There were a lot of scattered and intensifying discussions about these trends and issues prior to the election – but since then, it’s been an earthquake.
Since so much of these changes are cultural – I want to look at them from both a professional and personal lens.
And I promise to practice what I preach! As my own foray into the “micro-culture”, I’ll engage and respond to whatever comments these pieces generate.
Interesting post. Thank you. What’s your view on ‘national’ channels - like the BBC in the UK? It’s becoming less popular because of its perceived bias, but presumably, if they can ever truly be impartial, media like this should have an increasingly important role to play.